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To all future IMGs, 2016 was the best year!!

2K views 3 replies 2 participants last post by  kash_md 
#1 · (Edited)
Hello,

We keep hearing in the past five years that the number of US graduates will increase dramatically so that the number of available residency positions will be significantly less for IMGs.

Well, the 2016 report from the NRMP have shown that 2016 has been the best year of matching IMGs !! with a record of 50.5% who applied to the match matched. What is striking also is the 2016 year had the lowest number of (now only percentage) but also unmatched applicants.

So for every two IMGs apply, one will match Happy-2

See page 6 in the NRMP report:
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Advance-Data-Tables-2016_Final.pdf

To all future applicants, work hard on your steps and CV and the future is better every year.
 
#2 · (Edited)
Hello,

We keep hearing in the past five years that the number of US graduates will increase dramatically so that the number of available residency positions will be significantly less for IMGs.

Well, the 2016 report from the NRMP has shown that 2016 has been the best year of matching IMGs !! with a record of 50.5% who applied to the match matched. What is striking also is the 2016 yea had the lowest number of (now only percentage) of unmatched applicants.

So for every two IMGs apply, one will match Happy-2

See page 6 in the NRMP report:
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Advance-Data-Tables-2016_Final.pdf

To all future applicants, work hard on your steps and CV and the future is better every year.
The number of US graduates is increasing every year, statistics show that the number USAMGs are increasing at a rate greater than residency positions are created. If you want the statistical breakdown, NEJM articles, public policy that is encouraging medical schools to grow to a point to wear its a 1 to 1, I can gladly show you if you ask nicely, obviously these things take decades to come to fruition, just like it took decades for the shortage of physicians (or mal distribution issue but we aren't here to debate that) in the United States to occur because of public policy in the 80s and 90s.

please reference
JAMA. 1983 Nov 18;250(19):2603-4. Preventing the impending doctor glut. Louria DB. PMID: 6632157 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
http://www.nytimes.com/1985/04/08/us/glut-of-doctors-creating-a-patient-s-market.html?pagewanted=all

The future is not going to be better every year, a balance will be achieved eventually.

For example. There has been a recognition that there is a primary care shortage in America, hence a healthy growth rate of 22% in IM positions between 2012 and 2015 see table 3
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Advance-Data-Tables-2016_Final.pdf

Undoubtedly IMGs have benefited from this increase in IM positions in the last half of this decade, but it would be short sighted to believe that this astronomical growth will continue.

for example between 2012 (5277) and 2015 (6770) there was a 22% increase in IM positions in these United States of America.

But a deeper understanding of the statistics shows that many of these IMGs will be left out when trying to compete for an IM sub speciality

If I take all the IM sub specialties and compare the positions offered between 2012 (3329) and 2015 (3601) you'll notice there was only an 8% increase in sub specialties. (*geriatrics not included bc no data from 2012)

see table 6 http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Results-and-Data-SMS-2015.pdf

In any case, no one is talking about an impending doom, but its coming, average isn't good enough most of the time, and if your ultimate goal is to become a gastroenterologist or cardiologist, just finishing an IM residency may not be enough.

Moreover, the second that the physician market becomes over-saturated, and the forces of supply and demand decrease physician salaries anymore and policy will shift accordingly, and the first to be left out will be IMGs or try getting that J1 waiver if times ever do get "tough"

see this article from 1997 to see what I am talking about http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB856995603561414000
 
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#3 ·
fellowship positions is definitely an easier match for both AMGs and IMGs (given that they are both hold ACGME board certificate in their specialty) for two reasons:

1- An ACGME board certified in any primary care specialty means that you can have a job. About 50% of primary care ACGME certified physicians have no plans on pursing fellowships.

2- Per the NRMP fellowship match data, the number of fellowship positions to the number of applicants has been steady increasing, 10 subspecialties in pediatrics and internal medicine had less number of applicants than offered positions!!! which can never ever happen in a residency match.
 
#4 · (Edited)
and to the OP, a blanket statement that the future is better every year is a disservice, wrong, and misleading, and as physicians we should be more responsible.

and while a FALSE 50% match rate might make you Happy-2, a) it isn't truly a 50% match rate, you forgot to include the unranked applicants, and those applicants who withdrew from the match (for whatever reason, prematch or otherwise), which brings us to a 37% and 39% "true" match for IMGs and US IMGs respectively, still doing the Happy-2 dance OP?

I don't think about those fortunate enough to match (myself included),

my heart truly goes out to the MAJORITY of applicants (who the OP ignores in their elementary statistical analysis, who sacrificed thousands of dollars, countless hours and years, a roller coaster of emotions, sacrificed holidays, weddings, birthdays, time, energy, borrowed money, and are ultimately left with nothing. I know this TRUE majority of unmatched applicants, they are my immediate family members, my colleagues and best friends in medical school, people I practiced CS with and became friends with, ppl I did observerships with, and unknown faces that I have interacted with on forums like this.

To all the future IMGs, 2016 was not the best year ever, we are still 2nd class citizens in the match, and my sincere advice to you all is work hard, stay positive, get better than average scores, be the best you can be and good luck on your journey. However, personal introspection, self awareness, setting goals, milestones, etc will serve you well rather than believing fake rosy statistics from users on the internet.

The majority don't match, this shouldn't dissuade you from pursuing the residency in the US, but rather I hope, an honest perspective about matching chances, fellowship chances, specialty chances should motivate you to perform your best.

PS to the OP I stopped reading when you said fellowship matches are definitely easier to match in, I've had enough experience with IMGs and on the interview trail (even had a few straw votes in interviews) to know that the overwhelming majority start this IM journey wanting to be Cardiologists, GI, Hem Onc but you can quote whatever you want and believe whatever you want.

"So for every two IMGs apply, one will match" & "What is striking also is the 2016 year had the lowest number of (now only percentage) but also unmatched applicants." - No OP what is striking is not your gross misunderstanding of elementary biostats, but posting about your gross misunderstanding of simple statistics and arithmetic. Brush up on that USMLE step 1 biostats stuff or you just may become pharm reps favorite doctor and that probably isn't a good thing
 
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