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No More IMGs in the Future; Is It True?
by Sabio 02-04-2012, 06:00 PM

Scores of IMGs are talking about an impending doom for the IMGs in USA. They are talking about the fact that more and more AMGs are graduating and therefore there will be no place for IMGs in the next couple of years and the story of IMGs matching into US residency will come to an end very soon.

So let me share with you my thoughts about this.

The best way to forecast the future is by looking at the past. By the way this how weather forecasting works! So it's the best option that we have now.

Over the last 5 years, the IMG numbers have been pretty much constant according the NRMP data.

Every year, there's around 10,000 applicants of which 4,000 make it into residency. See below;

No More IMGs in the Future; Is It True?-img-graph.jpg
click image to enlarge
Ref: http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2011.pdf

I wouldn't believe it if that number goes to zero in the next two or three years. Such drastic changes do not happen over one year, we should at least see a down slope of the curve before we expect it to hit bottom. In fact, there's been a slight increase in 2011 compared to 2010.

The US Health Care System is dependent on IMGs and they constitute 25% of the workforce. It wouldn't be logical to get rid of this quarter all of a sudden.

Somebody might argue that similar thing happened in UK recently. But the UK market is entirely different. In UK, the training positions were already saturated for several years and therefore they had to come up with legislation that protect their own graduates, but that's not the case here in USA. In America, there's a shortage of doctors. Even in UK, they are now regretting it, as they started to have acute deficiencies specially in remote areas.

Yes, there's higher number of AMGs in the coming years, but at the same time, residency positions are on the rise. See this for example;
15,000 New Residency Positions by 2017

There are many factors that play role here, not only the rising number of AMGs.

Here's some factors that argue against the doom theory:

1) Many residency programs are filled entirely or mostly by IMGs, because AMGs will not go there no matter what. Examples include low profile community programs and unwanted geographic areas.
2) There's a trend among residency program directors, that it's better to accept a brilliant IMG than an average AMG, Conrad Fischer (long time veteran program director) eluted to this in his Twitter account recently.
3) The economy is showing signs of recovery. Therefore, it's highly likely that there will be more residency training positions specially in the face of alarming shortages in the physicians' workforce.
4) The ECFMG (whole purpose is to license IMGs) has actually been hiring more people recently, see this, Don't you think it's not logical for them to expand if an impending doom is anticipated!

Given the above discussion, I personally think, the percentage of IMGs accepted (42% in 2011) would not go below 35% in the coming two to three years, if ever.

So dear IMGs, hope for the best and go grab some books and hit on the USMLE

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Old 02-04-2012
 
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WOW Thanks a lot for this!!! Very interesting & HELPFUL everything you posted!
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Old 02-05-2012
 
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Thanks a lot for such a awesome post ! Really nice work.
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Old 02-05-2012
 
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Thank you

Thank you for the wonderful article, answered almost all of my queries regarding the doomsday. Keep posting articles like this.
Thanks
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Old 02-05-2012
 
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Thank you

Thank you for the detailed analysis. This should put an end to all the sp called "Doomsday conspiracies"
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Old 02-05-2012
 
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thnnnnnnnnk uuuuu..!!!!!
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Old 02-05-2012
 
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heyyyyyyyyyyy

hey Sabio,
Really Thank you very very very very much. i dont how can i decribe in word to say thank you.
is it already passed this law or still on papper?
if it pass mean when residency seat to start increase mean 2013?
if it is PASS THEN IT IS VERY GOOD NEW FOR IMG...
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Old 02-05-2012
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hardik221186 View Post
hey Sabio,
Really Thank you very very very very much. i dont how can i describe in word to say thank you.
is it already passed this law or still on paper?
if it pass mean when residency seat to start increase mean 2013?
if it is PASS THEN IT IS VERY GOOD NEW FOR IMG...
It's not passed yet and I don't know if it's going to be passed or not. But this article is not only about that proposed law, it has several other things pointing out to the unlikelihood of the impending doom.

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Old 02-05-2012
 
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thanks sabio
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Old 02-05-2012
 
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Where does all this doom theory start from?

And when are we gonna have news about this legislation thing? Is it in progress?

The 15000 new residency slots refer to all specialties?

Thanks in advance!
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Old 02-05-2012
 
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Thank you so much!
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Old 03-10-2012
 
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Thank u soo much for this encouragment...Hope the residency positions be increased soon..
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Old 03-14-2012
 
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thank you very much.
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Old 03-25-2012
 
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good to hear

feels like it is getting harder for imgs to match each year. but good to know there still is hope
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Old 03-25-2012
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy View Post
feels like it is getting harder for imgs to match each year. but good to know there still is hope
Not true...many people i know have matched this year and they were all imgs...more so then i heard last year
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Old 03-28-2012
 
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As I expected and mentioned in the initial post above, the IMG matching percentage for the year 2012 remained almost the same. For details read here IMG matching in 2012 remained the same

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Old 03-29-2012
 
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trend regarding matching by year 2013

It would rise according to NRMP statistics. Reference ECFMG issue#187...gud luck
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Old 04-06-2012
 
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nice work, both fact and encouraging. keep the faith!
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Old 04-23-2012
 
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thanks a lot.
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Old 05-16-2012
 
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Thanks a lot for this post
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Old 07-28-2012
 
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Thank you

That still deserves more "Thank you"s.
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Old 08-30-2012
 
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yeah thnk u so much i think it would be the best "being a brilliant img" =)
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Old 08-30-2012
 
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hey my friend need your help

Hey which data is for greencard holder -1 or 2 or 3



1.The number of IMGs, including Fifth Pathway participants, who matched to first-year positions increased by 260 compared to 2011. Of the 11,134 IMGs who participated in the 2012 Match, 4,886 (43.9%) matched. In the 2011



2.Match, 4,626 (44.2%) IMGs were matched to first-year positions.
Of the 6,828 IMG participants who were not U.S. citizens, 2,775 (40.6%) obtained first-year positions. The number of non-U.S. citizen IMGs who obtained positions in 2012 increased by 54, after declining for the two previous years.




3.Of the 4,279 U.S. citizen IMG participants, 2,102 (49.1%) were matched to first-year positions, an increase of 218 over last year. This is the ninth consecutive year that there has been an increase in the number of U.S. citizen IMGs matching to first-year positions.






Thank you in advance.
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Old 09-21-2012
 
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thanks sahibo
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Old 10-04-2012
 
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thanks guys this was helpful
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Old 10-07-2012
 
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Thanks alot for sharing and for the motivation
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Old 11-04-2012
 
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democratic or republican

which party is in favour of this bill which will be beneficial for IMGS..i have to vote on nov 6 ,any opinion doctors...????
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Old 12-15-2012
 
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thank god

cheers all IMGS!!!!
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Old 12-16-2012
 
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Forgive me But :

Indeed selling hope is a business with profits
But sometimes I just don't buy it...!!
especially when my whole career is on the line...
It's facts what we need not logic...!!!
like :" the number of AMGs in 2015 would be (X) which is less than the available position for residency applicants by (Y%) = more positions for us"
and If may I ask a question ....
How much time do an AMG at the final year of med. school needs to "graduate" and get a position !
we are not here to discuss the American government health survive policies and strategies
the main purpose of our discussion _in my opinion_ is to know our odds of getting a residency if we get to compete with a much more greater number of AMGs...!!
So the question to answer is How may AMGs will apply for the 2015 match and who do you think they would prefer ?
when I read the title for the first time I was hoping that I would find something that could help me out or give some hope but obviously I'm not good at "the hope business"
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Old 01-08-2013
 
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I Believe it

I believe that IMGs continue getting space in USA as good, and aways good professionals, so I thank you for this well explained articule with brilliant logical thoughts.
Thank again.
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Old 01-13-2013
 
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Thanks a lot.
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Old 01-19-2013
 
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is it really true??
because i just started and given this scenario of no match after this year......
thats really sad
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Old 02-02-2013
 
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Thank you Sabio for your post. I just want to point to the fact that American legislation makers are not that moronic to increase the number of med schools hens increasing the number of potential residents without making sure there is an increase in the numbers of residency programs to accommodate them------>No residency------>No practice
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Old 03-16-2013
 
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Thank you !

Thank you for sharing
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Old 06-22-2013
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sabio View Post
Scores of IMGs are talking about an impending doom for the IMGs in USA.........
Thanks brother
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Old 07-08-2013
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AMOONA View Post
Thank you Sabio for your post. I just want to point to the fact that American legislation makers are not that moronic to increase the number of med schools hens increasing the number of potential residents without making sure there is an increase in the numbers of residency programs to accommodate them------>No residency------>No practice
I tend to believe legislation makers everywhere are moronic. The reason is that GME (residency) funding is directly tied to Medicare, which is usually being slashed by lawmakers and not increased. So the growing disparity between graduating med students and residency slots was a very real thing.

Thankfully, a few sensible politicians have started the move to at least attempt to open up more spots. Here's the latest update:

https://www.aamc.org/newsroom/newsre...48/031413.html

Whether or not this will actually get passed, I have no idea. I'm not a politician.
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Old 07-19-2013
 
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thanks

Thanks a lot .. such a nice post for someone who is very new to USMLE and an IMG
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Old 07-26-2013
 
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thanks for the clarification

thanks a lot for the information u posted. residency in US is my ultimate dream and u just make me into it more ...
in many countries around the world it is very difficult to get the medical training of challenge and quality and US provide one of the few spots in the world where one can aspire to be the doctor he or she want to be. closing such door is devastating to humanity ...
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Old 02-03-2014
 
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Thanks a ton!

All such things cannot happen in a few years.. people have always said that imgs will not be accepted from a long time, but thats not how it works. The US med system always encouraged imgs to fill a part of their residency seats. Lets put an end to all such speculation.
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Old 02-08-2014
 
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Thank you for the good job...liked the links in particular.
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Old 08-13-2014
 
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gratitude

thank you very much boss
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Old 04-09-2016
 
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this is news to me
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Old 05-16-2016
 
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Thank you for this!
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Old 06-06-2016
 
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is it true no more IMG's after 2018? :(

No More IMGs after 2018; Is It True? I heard this twice today ,,is it really true or just a rumor
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Old 08-25-2016
 
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good to know
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Old 10-01-2016
 
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now we also compete agains DO. there is a movement to combine MD/DO residencies. more competition.
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