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Old 02-27-2012
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Default Prediction of common Step-1 assessement tools

Today an average IMG preparing for step 1 uses KLN,FA,BRS(syllabus) for passive learning and answers questions as a matter of active learning (qbook,qbank). Later in preparation, students usually take assessement exams (NBME,UWSA)

We can find many topics in many forums where students report their Step 1 exam score and the results of their assessements before the exam.

Usually we find the results of 2-3 nbme's and 1-2 UWSA. And then the author of the post makes an assumption that one of the NBME's was most predictive...

SOmetimes we even find UW qbank or Kaplan qbank scores along.

===========

The average student that posts his scores online usually has a score higher than 225, and NBMEs in range of 220 - 235.
And UW score of 70-75% cumulative.
UWSA exams (especially 2nd) do overpredict the score.

===========
NBME has 200 questions of various difficulty with usually a short stem questions.
UW has a mix of easy and hard questions (n=2090)
To score "OK" in NBME, the student must get more than 70% correct.

===========

Based on this, a big sample size of UW questions is more accurate on evaluating the students performance (low B-error)
So when the student reaches the point of 65-75% in UW, he takes NBME which usually varies between 65-70 at this point.

My conclusion is that NBME by itself has a high chance of under or over-predicting the student's exam score and, it is not necessarily a good evaluating tool in terms of weaknesses, as a low number of questions (low sample size) sets a very high chance of error.

===========

Based on this, the overall performance should be taken into consideration:
UW, Kaplan qbank, Qbook,

NBME,UWSA,Free 150.

Having 70% in all of these tools will guarantee you passing in the exam.
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Old 02-27-2012
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The other factor, biasing the general idea on evaluation is the question of who actually posts the score?

We might assume, that there are people who tells the truth about their score.
People who lie.
ANd people who do not report, because they are not interessted in wasting their free time anymore.

So we are left with those who has reported the score.
Lets imagine that the person had great score and wants to share it with others, but it is not comfortable/appropriate in real life, so they post it online anonymous.
- great score, they are happy, nbme's were right and so on.

Lets imagine a person who took the test and passed and and had low score.
He doesnt want it to be discussed among his real friends and posts it online.
-low score, he is not very happy, nbme's were right, but UWSA were wrong and so on.
-this person might not report his scores at all, just to keep it for him(her)self.

The other person had low score, but lied online that he actually did great.
(in this category if person failed, they more likely not report about their step 2 either with the same nickname)

So we are left with the people who did great and posted their results on 2 occasions - step1 and step2.

But the thing is their scores are usually high, so there is no use predicting average step 1 score.

The conclusion is, unless you score 90% of NBME's - there is no guaranteed prediction of your exact step 1 score.
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