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#1
04-29-2012
 USMLE Forums Guru Steps History: 1+CK+CS Posts: 333 Threads: 162 Thanked 282 Times in 146 Posts Reputation: 292
Calculating the chance of survival?

If the chance of surviving for 5 years after being diagnosed with colorectal cancer is 45% and the chance of surviving for 2 years after diagnosis is 75%, what is the chance of surviving for 5 years after diagnosis, given that the patients is alive at the end of the second year?

A) 15%
B) 30%
C) 45%
D) 60%
E) 75%

#2
04-29-2012
 USMLE Forums Master Steps History: 1+CK+CS+3 Posts: 1,684 Threads: 213 Thanked 1,590 Times in 660 Posts Reputation: 1600

B) 30% ... not too sure though ?

This is a good question .... I hate such questions.
#3
04-29-2012
 USMLE Forums Master Steps History: 1+CK+CS+3 Posts: 1,353 Threads: 94 Thanked 873 Times in 506 Posts Reputation: 886

wait, this wording is kinda weird,
is it just asking the same thing. "what is the chance of surviving for 5 years"? its what, still 45?
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#4
04-29-2012
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27 % ... Not sure .

lol , thats not even an option.:P
#5
04-29-2012
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Should be 45 %
#6
04-29-2012
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should be more than 45 % and less than 75 %

hmmmm 60 %

no need to calculate this one came straight from kaplan
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#7
04-30-2012
 USMLE Forums Veteran Steps History: 1+CK+CS Posts: 257 Threads: 49 Thanked 75 Times in 50 Posts

yeah straight from kaplan.
the no. of ppl surviving at the end of 2 yrs=75(out of 100)
the no. of ppl surviving for another 3 yrs(i.e 5 yrs) are a subset of this no. =45/75=60%
 The above post was thanked by: Casandra (04-30-2012), Evergreen (04-30-2012), Hope2Pass (04-30-2012)
#8
04-30-2012
 USMLE Forums Guru Steps History: Not yet Posts: 414 Threads: 30 Thanked 86 Times in 69 Posts Reputation: 96

Quote:
 Originally Posted by vna.rao22 yeah straight from kaplan. the no. of ppl surviving at the end of 2 yrs=75(out of 100) the no. of ppl surviving for another 3 yrs(i.e 5 yrs) are a subset of this no. =45/75=60%
there is simple logic can be solved by
no need to calc
since already survived has to be more than 45 %
and since it can't be 75% as it is survival unto 2 years has to be less
so left with
ding dong 60%
this is how dr.D explain in video
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#9
04-30-2012
 USMLE Forums Guru Steps History: 1+CK+CS Posts: 333 Threads: 162 Thanked 282 Times in 146 Posts Reputation: 292

Quote:
 Originally Posted by vna.rao22 yeah straight from kaplan. the no. of ppl surviving at the end of 2 yrs=75(out of 100) the no. of ppl surviving for another 3 yrs(i.e 5 yrs) are a subset of this no. =45/75=60%
Good job!
The answer is 60%.

 Tags Biostatistics-Epidemiology, Step-1-Questions

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