Hi, from my experience and looking at the different posts, over predicts by 15-20 points usually when you get higher scores above 240-250
It tends to over predict by 10 points when you are around the average.
Take an NBME to get a better prediction it costs double right :redcheeks; but higher correlation.
NBME's are usually easier then the exam and are not timed but the people behind it have done alot of research ,correlating the scores of NBME's with the actual exam results of hundreds of thousands of AMGs- so taking it Offline is also quite not predictive. Usually if you do 2 NBME's the average between them will be your score.
Hi man dont get stressed thats what i understood .
Anyhow as i wrote, they predict with correlation to how people who answered like you , scored in the actual exam. you can even see for example in order to get lets say 270 on nbme you need 6-7 mistakes out of 200
thats like 97% right. I am sure you would agree thats very high, which means that in order to get the same result in the actual exam you have to have only 10 mistakes out of 322 questions, i personally think it's very hard usually people get only 10 questions wrong becuase of lack of concentration only.
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