There is a epidemiology question in Kaplan Lecture Notes - CK that says
A 55 yrs old man visits a doctor with a urinary complaint. exam reveals 1 cm nodule on the prostate. The doctor orders PSA test. By common standard PSA more than 4 is abnormal. this test has sensitivity of 80%and specificity of 90%. a recent article found that in a cross sectional study 10% of men this age have prostate ca. The result of the man PSA is 7. What is the best estimate of the likelihood that this patient has prostate carcinoma.
A. 13%
B. 25%
C. 36%
D. 47%
E. 58%
F. 81%
THE CORRECT ANSWER GIVEN IS D 47%..what i want to know is that are they asking us to calculate the positive predictive value??..n how they arrived at the answer of 47%.pls explain in clarity.anyone.thnks
A 55 yrs old man visits a doctor with a urinary complaint. exam reveals 1 cm nodule on the prostate. The doctor orders PSA test. By common standard PSA more than 4 is abnormal. this test has sensitivity of 80%and specificity of 90%. a recent article found that in a cross sectional study 10% of men this age have prostate ca. The result of the man PSA is 7. What is the best estimate of the likelihood that this patient has prostate carcinoma.
A. 13%
B. 25%
C. 36%
D. 47%
E. 58%
F. 81%
THE CORRECT ANSWER GIVEN IS D 47%..what i want to know is that are they asking us to calculate the positive predictive value??..n how they arrived at the answer of 47%.pls explain in clarity.anyone.thnks