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A warning worth heeding

I do admit that some of the points of the original poster are a bit overstated, but he does bring up some really good points. For me the take home message is that getting a 99 is not what it used to be. With the steady increase of averages of usmle scores, and the unexplained reasons why a 99 now can correlate with a 3 digit score as low as 229, makes getting a 99 on the 2 digit scale less elite. Especially since the Scores are negatively skewed (mean<median<mode), which means that the average student (the median) scores higher than the stated average.

Competition is rising every year, and as an IMG we would be less likely to be chosen, unless we really stand out. While I don't think any real people get a 270, it makes sense that we should make this the new target, since the target of getting a 99 is not going to be the magic ticket to make all of our dreams come true.

Thanks for the warning dali89, since I am sure most of thing that if we get back to back 99s we will have our choice of any program we want, which is not true. I hope you the best luck in matching in the following year, and think it is prudent for you to apply to programs that do give you interviews, even if they arent on your initial list of desired university programs.

In reference to the outcomes for 2009 we need to keep in mind that the people who matched in 2009 must have taken step 1 in 2007. Scores go up every year, so we need to plan to be competitive with the rising standards of the future. According to Kaplan only 42% of IMGs matched in 2010 for a first year residency. Of course IMGs on average score much lower than AMGs but still our scores will be the main thing that will give us a fighting chance. Also as far as step 2 goes, the mean is right around 230/99, so scoring higher there will be imperative.

Best of luck to everyone, and Thanks dali for the insight. If it is a rough job market out there, I would rather know about it while i can still do something about it.
 

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Stats

Slope Rectangle Water Font Plot

click image to enlarge

Sorry for nitpicking, but this seems to be turning into a stats discussion.

First off, The distribution for the USMLE is indeed a negative skew. Think about it, there will be far more people who will take the test and score 50 points below the mean then there will be people who will score 50 above the mean. (Since about 20% of people who take the test will not pass). The more extreme values effect the mean more.

Let me give a hypothetical scenario:
If the average is 220, 4 people scoring 230 will be cancelled out by one person scoring a 180 if looking at the mean. However the median of this group has moved to 230, since the guy in the middle of the pack scored a 230. This is how the usmle scores are, with tons of people clumped in the middle, and much more outliers on the negative end of the spectrum. The image at the top illustrates how the distribution looks. To sum up negative and postive skew, the skinny end points to the skewed side.

Also as far as the exact percentile of what is a 99, it really cant be done with a high level of precision since it is not a normal Gaussian curve.

As a slight non-sequitur, it seems like scoring a 270 would be close to the 99th percentile, which is so commonly misused in place of the two digit score of 99.
 
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