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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Scores of IMGs are talking about an impending doom for the IMGs in USA. They are talking about the fact that more and more AMGs are graduating and therefore there will be no place for IMGs in the next couple of years and the story of IMGs matching into US residency will come to an end very soon.

So let me share with you my thoughts about this.

The best way to forecast the future is by looking at the past. By the way this how weather forecasting works! So it's the best option that we have now.

Over the last 5 years, the IMG numbers have been pretty much constant according the NRMP data.

Every year, there's around 10,000 applicants of which 4,000 make it into residency. See below;

Rectangle Parallel Symmetry Font Pattern

click image to enlarge
Ref: http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2011.pdf

I wouldn't believe it if that number goes to zero in the next two or three years. Such drastic changes do not happen over one year, we should at least see a down slope of the curve before we expect it to hit bottom. In fact, there's been a slight increase in 2011 compared to 2010.

The US Health Care System is dependent on IMGs and they constitute 25% of the workforce. It wouldn't be logical to get rid of this quarter all of a sudden.

Somebody might argue that similar thing happened in UK recently. But the UK market is entirely different. In UK, the training positions were already saturated for several years and therefore they had to come up with legislation that protect their own graduates, but that's not the case here in USA. In America, there's a shortage of doctors. Even in UK, they are now regretting it, as they started to have acute deficiencies specially in remote areas.

Yes, there's higher number of AMGs in the coming years, but at the same time, residency positions are on the rise. See this for example;
http://www.usmle-forums.com/usmle-news/15445-15-000-new-residency-positions-2017-a.html

There are many factors that play role here, not only the rising number of AMGs.

Here's some factors that argue against the doom theory:

1) Many residency programs are filled entirely or mostly by IMGs, because AMGs will not go there no matter what. Examples include low profile community programs and unwanted geographic areas.
2) There's a trend among residency program directors, that it's better to accept a brilliant IMG than an average AMG, Conrad Fischer (long time veteran program director) eluted to this in his Twitter account recently.
3) The economy is showing signs of recovery. Therefore, it's highly likely that there will be more residency training positions specially in the face of alarming shortages in the physicians' workforce.
4) The ECFMG (whole purpose is to license IMGs) has actually been hiring more people recently, see this, Don't you think it's not logical for them to expand if an impending doom is anticipated!

Given the above discussion, I personally think, the percentage of IMGs accepted (42% in 2011) would not go below 35% in the coming two to three years, if ever.

So dear IMGs, hope for the best and go grab some books and hit on the USMLE ;)

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Thank you

Thank you for the wonderful article, answered almost all of my queries regarding the doomsday. Keep posting articles like this.
Thanks
 

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Thank you

Thank you for the detailed analysis. This should put an end to all the sp called "Doomsday conspiracies"
 

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heyyyyyyyyyyy

hey Sabio,
Really Thank you very very very very much. i dont how can i decribe in word to say thank you.
is it already passed this law or still on papper?
if it pass mean when residency seat to start increase mean 2013?
if it is PASS THEN IT IS VERY GOOD NEW FOR IMG...:):)Happy-2Happy-2Happy-2Happy-2:happy::happy::happy::happy::happy::happy::happy::p:p:p
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
hey Sabio,
Really Thank you very very very very much. i dont how can i describe in word to say thank you.
is it already passed this law or still on paper?
if it pass mean when residency seat to start increase mean 2013?
if it is PASS THEN IT IS VERY GOOD NEW FOR IMG...:):)Happy-2Happy-2Happy-2Happy-2:happy::happy::happy::happy::happy::happy::happy::p:p:p
It's not passed yet and I don't know if it's going to be passed or not. But this article is not only about that proposed law, it has several other things pointing out to the unlikelihood of the impending doom.

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Where does all this doom theory start from?

And when are we gonna have news about this legislation thing? Is it in progress?

The 15000 new residency slots refer to all specialties?

Thanks in advance!
 

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trend regarding matching by year 2013

It would rise according to NRMP statistics. Reference ECFMG issue#187...gud luck
 
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