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I just took my exam a couple weeks ago and I took 4 different NBME forms as well. As far as I can tell, the difficulty of the NBME varies between the different forms too. I can't remember which form was easy and which one was hard. To answer you question, I think the NBMEs really do mimic the actual exam; the actual exam might be a little more difficult, but not by much. UWorld tends to be more difficult than the actual exam though.
 

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Haven't received my score, but ya I think the difficulty was similar to the hard NBMEs. But UWorld is a little too hard though. Remember though, your score is based on how everyone else does so the difficulty is irrelevant since more people will do bad if it's harder vs if it's easier.
 
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